Today we’re continuing the topic about coastal property being affected by the climate change. Let’s start by addressing a few questions.

Why will the sea level rise?

Because the ice and glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland are melting. Scientists don’t fully understand the whole mechanism of this melting and can’t predict exactly how and when the sea level will rise; they are estimating it to rise 1.1 meters by 2100.

Why have people been building close to the shoreline?

Because over the last 7000 years sea level around Australia has been stable, and people assumed it will stay the same. But now things are changing and the latest report from the government clearly makes that a false assumption.

What’s the worst thing that can happen?

Right now the benchmark for “nightmare weather” is an event similar to June 2007 when in NSW storms caused 200,000 houses to lose power, thousands of people were forced to evacuate and damage to property exceeded 1 billion dollars.

Where things might get really bad?

According to a graph from the government climate change report, there are 4 areas where the most extensive damage from storm tide is expected: Kingston, Hobsons Bay, Greater Geelong and Wellington. In Kingston the estimated number of existing buildings at risk is between 6500 and 9000, in Hobsons Bay between 4500 and 7500 houses are at rick, in Greater Geelong - between 4500 and 6500, and in Wellington between 3500 and 4000. These numbers are assuming the 1.1 m rise that is expected by 2100.

Where is the “risk zone”?

Have a look at the “before and after” photos below, taken from the “Climate change risks” report.

Here you are looking at Altona (Hobsons Bay area) in 2009.

And now you are looking at Altona in 2100, notice the blue area? Areas covered with water here used to be covered with houses in 2009, photo above.

These next 2 photos are of Geelong. This one is Geelong as we know it.

And this one is a prediction of Geelong after a storm tide in 2100.

That’s it, no more scary photos

Now about the City of Port Phillip. According to the 2100 predictions, properties close to the Elwood Canal, Luna Park, the St. Kilda Baths, the St. Kilda Pier and Marina are at risk from 2 factors - the first is a storm surge, and the second is infrastructure instability.

photo source

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